Where operations meet the markets.

Massive stalemate occurring with Iran

As Iran and the United States continue to drag out this war, there's been very little progress toward true peace. While bombing campaigns on the country itself have subsided, there's still rising tension regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Proposals have gone back and forth between both sides with no agreement, and each side maintains the ceasefire is "unbroken" even while continuing to strike the other's ships at sea. What started as a security operation involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran has turned into a three-month energy crisis affecting the rest of the world.

China has started voicing its own opinion. President Trump and President Xi met at the Beijing Summit and agreed the Strait of Hormuz should remain a free water passage, rejecting the idea of Iran charging for passage. President Trump has reportedly invited President Xi to the White House in September; it's unclear whether Xi will attend. Separately, Saudi Arabia has conducted secretive strikes on Iran after its own energy infrastructure was attacked, and Iran still retains the ability to strike further oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, according to U.S. Central Command.

Inflation continues to soar, primarily driven by gasoline

April inflation came in at 3.8%, above both the prior month's 3.3% and the Wall Street Journal's 3.7% estimate. Core inflation also surprised to the upside at 2.8%, versus a 2.7% estimate and 2.6% the month before. Rising prices in everyday items like coffee and gas are squeezing consumers, and economists are increasingly worried about the long-term effects of tariffs layered on top of an ongoing war. The Fed, along with incoming voices like Kevin Warsh, will have tough interest-rate decisions ahead, especially with political pressure to cut rates during an inflationary period raising questions about the Fed's independence. Inflation is currently outpacing wage growth in the U.S.

Stock market continues to run rampant

Gains remain concentrated in AI and the infrastructure supporting it. Micron Technology, the fifth-largest memory chipmaker globally, is up 713.5% over the trailing twelve months, driven by outsized earnings growth: Net Income jumped from $1.56B in Q2 FY25 (19.66% net margin) to $13.76B in Q2 FY26 (57.8% net margin). Micron next reports earnings 6/24.

Bloom Energy, a fuel-cell power provider for data centers, is up 1,461% over the trailing twelve months, fueled by major deals, including one worth up to $5B with Oracle. After a negative net income in FY25, Bloom Energy turned a positive Q1 FY26, reporting $73.6M in net income at roughly a 10% net margin. Expectations remain high heading into their next earnings report on 7/30. I later dug into the company more deeply in a full equity research report (see Case Studies below).

Upcoming events to watch

Key economic data ahead includes Flash Manufacturing/Services PMI (May 21) and PCE Core, PCE Price, consumer spending, personal income, and the 2nd GDP estimate (May 28). On earnings: Ryanair kicks off the week Monday, offering a read on European airlines; Home Depot reports Tuesday as a gauge of U.S. consumer and developer spending; Nvidia headlines Wednesday alongside Lowe's and Target; Walmart follows Thursday and BJ's Wholesale on Friday. These reports matter beyond the individual companies; they're a window into consumer behavior and the direction of the main driver of U.S. GDP.